With
the shake of my crystal ball — and the accuracy of “Dewey Defeats
Truman” — here are my predictions for Sunday’s Tony Award winners.
BEST MUSICAL
The
race — and it’s tight as a tick — is between “Once,” that gentle little
show about sad people in Ireland, and “Newsies,” that ebulliant little
show (well, for Disney, anyway) about athletic newsboys in New York.
Lady voters adore “Once.” “I took my daughter and we cried and cried,”
says one, wiping away tears even now. But the guys like “Newsies,” some
because of those cute newsboys (“Eye candy in caps!” says one), others
because of its box-office prowess. The show has a $10 million advance
and should have a robust national tour next year.
Since the guys outweigh the girls on the Tony voter list, I’ll tip my cap to “Newsies.”
It will also win for Best Score, by Alan Menken and Jack Feldman , and Best Choreography, by Christopher Gattelli , who’s about to become the most sought-after choreographer on Broadway.
“Once” should pick up Tonys for book (Enda Walsh ) and direction (John Tiffany ), though I want to salute Jeff Calhoun for his fine work on “Newsies.” Calhoun trained under the best — Tommy Tune — and he’s come into his own as a top-tier musical-theater director.
Footnote: Last year, Douglas Carter Beane was nominated for his book for “Sister Act.” He told me he knew he
didn’t have a shot when they moved his seats from row E to row N. This
year he’s up for “Lysistrata Jones.” He’ll be in the mezzanine tending
the open bar.
BEST PLAY
“Other Desert Cities,” a posh soap opera by Jon Robin Baitz , once had a lock on this category. But Lincoln Center, its producer,
is not one for campaigning. Voters were invited back just a week ago —
“when everyone was booked up or just bored to tears,” one says. The show
closes June 17, “so what do they need the award for anyway?” another
voter says.
“Peter and the Starcatcher” has momentum, but will
probably cash in with the design awards — costumes, lighting, sets.
“People want to award its theatrical craftsmanship,” says a voter.
The winner will be “Clybourne Park,” Bruce Norris ’ acidic look at race relations in America. The play got an unexpected boost the other week from a glowing essay by Frank Rich in New York magazine. “That probably sealed the deal,” says a voter.
 
BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
No race here. Stephen Sondheim ’s “Follies” trumps the competition — “Evita,” “Jesus Christ Superstar”
and “The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess.” How smart Steve was to launch his
scalding attack on this Cliffs Notes version of “Porgy” last fall. It
did the trick!
BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
No race here,
either. Arthur Miller’s “Death of a Salesman” also trumps the
competition — “Gore Vidal’s The Best Man,” “Master Class” and “Wit.”
Mike Nichols will win for his direction of “Death of a Salesman,” and also for his
celebrated Broadway career as the director of “The Odd Couple,” “Plaza
Suite,” “The Real Thing,” “Hurlyburly” and “Spamalot.”
Expect the classiest of Tony acceptance speeches.
ACTING AWARDS
The obvious winners will be James Corden (“One Man, Two Guvnors”), Christian Borle (“Peter and the Starcatcher”), Audra McDonald (“Porgy”), Michael Cerveris (“Evita”), Judy Kaye (“Nice Work If You Can Get It”) and Judith Light (“Other Desert Cities”).
Best Actress in a Play is a tough call. Linda Lavin steals “The Lyons” right out from under the rest of the cast. Tracie Bennett is Judy Garland in “End of the Rainbow,” and Nina Ar ianda is Broadway’s newest sensation in “Venus in Fur.” I think voters will reward the kid. So it’s “Nina in Tony.”
As for Best Actor in a Musical, the battle’s between Jeremy Jordan (“Newsies”) and Steve Kazee (“Once”). I’ll tip it to Kazee. That New York Times profile about
growing up in a trailer park in Appalachia won sympathy — and votes.
SPECIAL TONY AWARD
Mine goes to Carly Sakolove , whose impersonations of Broadway divas in her show “I Hear Voices” at
the Duplex are funnier than anything I’ve seen this year. She’s there
tonight and Monday. And I am telling you, I’m going back!
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