I am no longer a heavy investor. For one thing I am semi-retired, recently divorced, and nearly a pauper because of those points. My legal fees in the giant peeing contest of 2002 to 2005 were over 46,000. Add that to the excruciating terms of the split and here I am.
I do have some cash left in my Keogh (I was self employed for over 30 years.) I must carefully husband that cash so that there will be enough money to bury my now 90-year-old mother and hopefully dispose of my own remains some day.
Last year I saw what was happening in the economy.
1. The Fed was lowerinbg interest rates, against the grain. This caused the inflow of foreign capital to dry up. The EU and Asian interest rates were NOT lowered. Money goes where the payout is better.
2. The signs of inflation were beginning to kick-in. This was because of the Fed's action, the prices of oil going up, and the war. War costs a great deal of money. This war has cost many times what Vietnam cost us.
3. The most important point of all... consumer confidence was going into the toilet.
I decided to make an investment in November. I didn't BUY anything, I sold it.
I sold a hundred shares of Winnebago short. That means, I put up the money that it would take to purchase the stock. It was above 21 dollars a share, so it cost me about $2200. Then the brokerage "borrows" the stock from someone, sells it at $2200, roughly.
Now you hope the stock goes down, not up. If it goes up then I must "cover" it and buy it back.
I had a vision of high=priced fuel, and it came true. In fact it came true in spades. The stock was around $11 this morning and I "covered" the position. Net profit will be about $1000.
That is the only position I had.
I wanted to hold on for a while because I believe Winnebago will go bust, as will most other RV manufacturers, within a year or two.
OK. More. What to do?
If you buy anything buy a fertilizer company's stock. Research it. Research is free. The web is loaded with it. I would have bought Potash in February when I told a buddy to buy it at $108. Today it is about 233 dollars. I didn't have the money. There are about forty fertilizer manufacturers, but only about four or five are solid.
Do the work. Read up on them.
Don't buy anything at all that requires more than an expenditure of 10% on energy in order to produce. The reason I like fertilizer companies is because of what the price of crude oil and gas has done to agriculture. Farmers will plant more and try to grow more in their existing acreage, and that takes enormous amounts of fertilizer. Also, the ethanol scam has caused more corn to be planted versus wheat and beans. Corn requires more fertilizer than the other crops.
Most fertilizer stock has already doubled. Some have tripled. They will just about all quadruple.
Stay away from financials (banks, brokerages, insurance stocks.) Don't buy oil stocks.
Buy nuclear. Westinghouse is my favorite. I think it will double over the next three years. I don't give a crap what you personally think about nuclear power, it is the way we will go.
What stocks are in deep do-doo?
1. Auto companies.
2. Transport companies other than rails (BUY RAILS!!!)
3. Airlines and airplane manufacturers.
4. Upper-tiered pricey restaurant chains.
5. Hotels.
6. Resorts.
7. FedEx, UPS, etc.
In addition....
I don't hold out much hope. Obama will win in a landslide, and I'm voting for him. McCain seems to me a very weak, changling candidate, with no strong humanitarian position and only an echo of the past 8 years of catastrophe. 100 more years in Iraq? Come on! Who wrote that speech?
The Democrats are going to have to disassociate from the radical greens or die on the vine. They will. There is far too much to lose if McCain and Cheney get re-elected. A vote for the republicans this fall is a vote for perdition.
go well for you from now on. Thanks for fin'l insights.