Jon Adams

Profile

Username:
jondude
Name:
Jon Adams
Location:
Tiffin, OH
Birthday:
05/05
Status:
Single
Job / Career:
Design

Stats

Post Reads:
299,816
Posts:
1410
Photos:
12
Last Online:
> 30 days ago
View All »

My Friends

12 days ago
24 days ago
> 30 days ago
> 30 days ago
> 30 days ago
> 30 days ago
> 30 days ago
> 30 days ago

Subscribe

A Minority Of One

Life & Events > Predicting and Musing ...
 

Predicting and Musing ...

I am no longer a heavy investor. For one thing I am semi-retired, recently divorced, and nearly a pauper because of those points. My legal fees in the giant peeing contest of 2002 to 2005 were over 46,000. Add that to the excruciating terms of the split and here I am.

I do have some cash left in my Keogh (I was self employed for over 30 years.) I must carefully husband that cash so that there will be enough money to bury my now 90-year-old mother and hopefully dispose of my own remains some day.

Last year I saw what was happening in the economy.

1. The Fed was lowerinbg interest rates, against the grain. This caused the inflow of foreign capital to dry up. The EU and Asian interest rates were NOT lowered. Money goes where the payout is better.

2. The signs of inflation were beginning to kick-in. This was because of the Fed's action, the prices of oil going up, and the war. War costs a great deal of money. This war has cost many times what Vietnam cost us.

3. The most important point of all... consumer confidence was going into the toilet.

I decided to make an investment in November. I didn't BUY anything, I sold it.

I sold a hundred shares of Winnebago short. That means, I put up the money that it would take to purchase the stock. It was above 21 dollars a share, so it cost me about $2200. Then the brokerage "borrows" the stock from someone, sells it at $2200, roughly.

Now you hope the stock goes down, not up. If it goes up then I must "cover" it and buy it back.

I had a vision of high=priced fuel, and it came true. In fact it came true in spades. The stock was around $11 this morning and I "covered" the position. Net profit will be about $1000.

That is the only position I had.

I wanted to hold on for a while because I believe Winnebago will go bust, as will most other RV manufacturers, within a year or two.

OK. More. What to do?

If you buy anything buy a fertilizer company's stock. Research it. Research is free. The web is loaded with it. I would have bought Potash in February when I told a buddy to buy it at $108. Today it is about 233 dollars. I didn't have the money. There are about forty fertilizer manufacturers, but only about four or five are solid.

Do the work. Read up on them.

Don't buy anything at all that requires more than an expenditure of 10% on energy in order to produce. The reason I like fertilizer companies is because of what the price of crude oil and gas has done to agriculture. Farmers will plant more and try to grow more in their existing acreage, and that takes enormous amounts of fertilizer. Also, the ethanol scam has caused more corn to be planted versus wheat and beans. Corn requires more fertilizer than the other crops.

Most fertilizer stock has already doubled. Some have tripled. They will just about all quadruple.

Stay away from financials (banks, brokerages, insurance stocks.) Don't buy oil stocks.

Buy nuclear. Westinghouse is my favorite. I think it will double over the next three years. I don't give a crap what you personally think about nuclear power, it is the way we will go.

What stocks are in deep do-doo?

1. Auto companies.
2. Transport companies other than rails (BUY RAILS!!!)
3. Airlines and airplane manufacturers.
4. Upper-tiered pricey restaurant chains.
5. Hotels.
6. Resorts.
7. FedEx, UPS, etc.

In addition....

I don't hold out much hope. Obama will win in a landslide, and I'm voting for him. McCain seems to me a very weak, changling candidate, with no strong humanitarian position and only an echo of the past 8 years of catastrophe. 100 more years in Iraq? Come on! Who wrote that speech?

The Democrats are going to have to disassociate from the radical greens or die on the vine. They will. There is far too much to lose if McCain and Cheney get re-elected. A vote for the republicans this fall is a vote for perdition.

posted on June 20, 2008 10:30 AM ()

Comments:

dear Jon, sorry you have had such a rough time of it. Hope things
go well for you from now on. Thanks for fin'l insights.
comment by tealstar on June 26, 2008 7:50 AM ()
Jon, thanks for sharing that info. That was very interesting. (We're not going to jail now like Martha right?)
comment by shesaidwhat on June 22, 2008 7:08 AM ()
I believe in investing! Diamonds, chocolate...Oh yessssss!!!
comment by mzscarlett on June 20, 2008 6:45 PM ()
I would even short-sell the mutual funds, if I could (and no one can.) For someone to say that the stimulus checks will save the economy is like saying a mist will end a drought.
comment by jondude on June 20, 2008 4:38 PM ()
There are bears and bulls. I have been a bear for over a year. That means I believe the economy was and is in decline, big time. Tonight, as is often the case, I watched Kudlow & Co. on CNBC. What a bunch of morons! Kudlow believes and spouts the D.C. and Wall Street line that everything is coming up roses. Those guys are probably already sold out of the market, but their paychecks depend on stock and bond sales. They WANT you to believe the economy is strong and will rebound right away. I have never seen such bull-shat propaganda since Goebbels himself. There is NO good news - either now or coming soon. And when the Fed begins to increase interest rates, which it must do to save the dollar - the market will break two or three more resistance levels. I broke an important one today when it dropped below 12000 (DOWJONES) and stayed down.

Don't believe the stock-sellers. Don't pay any attention to Kudlow or to Cramer. They are salesmen.
comment by jondude on June 20, 2008 4:36 PM ()
If I had money I'd invest it..for now it's used for things like food and keeping a roof over my head.
comment by elfie33 on June 20, 2008 3:51 PM ()
These seem like pretty good predictions. But what are radical greens?
comment by drmaus on June 20, 2008 3:29 PM ()
I'll tell you what else is in deep doo-doo: My ability to save and invest in anything.
comment by marta on June 20, 2008 3:07 PM ()
thanks for the stock tips. I try my had at a stock simulator occasionally (don't have the disposable income to do it fer real) and see how I do "on papar" Its fun to match wits with those high powered Wall Street maggots...I mean magnates.

reguards
yer wheelin' an' dealin' pal
bugg
comment by honeybugg on June 20, 2008 1:31 PM ()
did you hear about some gas station are not accepting credit
card any more.Because their fees has gone up.
Boy,if they all follow this,a disaster is in the making.
comment by fredo on June 20, 2008 10:49 AM ()
I predict newspapers going bust too. Most Journalism is online - you know that of course. Microsoft will be liquidated and plunge all our shares into the dark beyond - no one will know what is going on (bermuda triangle music playing in the backround). Fuel prices will be so high that we won't be able to afford the trip the wall street - chaos in all means of the word! kk i'm being paranoid. but..... it's possible
comment by lynnie on June 20, 2008 10:45 AM ()

Comment on this article   


1,410 articles found   [ Previous Article ]  [ Next Article ]  [ First ]  [ Last ]