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Sunday in the Dark With Tony?
Really, we never learn. After a primary season that proved scientific polling
has the precision of a coin toss, after years of losing 10 bucks in the office
Oscar pool (darn you, documentary short subject), after Big
Brown did whatever he did last week at the Belmont Stakes, you would think
we would have come to our senses.
But then you call up someone with a passing interest in the Tony
Awards. He begins with some jokes about the tedium of it all. Then you hear
that little quickening in the voice, followed by the Theory and the Upset. Even
in a year like this, when there are what many consider foregone conclusions in
some categories and a general if mild dissatisfaction with the choices in
others, the old urge to predict remains. That’s the great thing about awards
shows: even when you aren’t rooting for anything in particular, you can always
root for surprise in general.
So with the 62nd annual Tony ceremony at Radio
City Music Hall only a couple of days away (it will be telecast Sunday at 8
Eastern time on CBS), it is time once again to throw some darts.
There are 796 Tony voters. A group that size would almost, but not quite,
sell out a performance of “Avenue Q” at the Golden Theater, one of the smallest
on Broadway. But that’s the crowd that decides who gets the hardware and who
gets the awkward reaction shot, which show gets a lease on life and which show
starts drafting the closing notice.
Here follows a rundown of Tony predictions, based on my poll of more than two
dozen of those voters (including road presenters, producers, artists and
journalists), some absurd speculation and occasional visits to Shubert Alley at
midnight with a black-cat bone and a few sticks of incense.
Musical
What many people said first: among the nominated shows — “Xanadu,” “In the
Heights,” “Passing Strange” and “Cry-Baby” — there is no juggernaut like “Jersey
Boys,” nor is there a rousing history-maker like “Spring Awakening.”
What many people said next: “Heights” is definitely the front-runner. (It
leads in the poll for score and, to a lesser extent, for choreography, though
“Cry-Baby” would not be a surprise there.)
Lin-Manuel Miranda, the creator of “Heights,” is a student of the classics,
and the show is in some ways the most traditional in the category, an
old-fashioned story of people torn between family and fortune told by a young
man with a dream. As one voter said, it’s like Yiddish theater in the barrio. In
that sense it could draw the old-line vote.
On the other hand, with a mostly Latino cast, a creative team that looks
right out of college and a score based on hip-hop, salsa and reggaetón, it also
draws the votes of those looking to drag Broadway out of the good old days. So
that’s an advantage in both directions.
The energy behind “Heights,” however, does not compare with the fervency of
the believers in “Passing Strange,” the musical/rock concert that transferred
uptown from the Public
Theater. Partisans of “Passing Strange” pop up everywhere, even on the road,
arguing that it is the true groundbreaker this season. Yet even those who voted
for “Passing Strange” said they believed it didn’t have a chance.
Still, when it’s this close, you are wise to surrender all responsibility and
bow to the math. And the poll numbers say: “Passing Strange.”
Play
“August: Osage County.” It will also pick up an award for its director (Anna
D. Shapiro). And probably leading actress in a play (see below). And perhaps
featured actress in a play (Rondi Reed). And maybe a Nobel
Prize in Medicine. Despite a small backlash in recent weeks, this is as
close as you can get to a lock.
Of the rest in the category:
The Roundabout
Theater Company’s cleverly unfurnished production of “The 39 Steps” may pick
up a design award or two, most likely for sound design. That’s a new category
this year and one in which most voters admit they are rather unqualified to
judge, but the sound tricks in “39 Steps” are witty, and the sound designer, Mic
Pool, has the coolest-sounding name in any category.
Conor
McPherson’s play “The Seafarer,” in addition to a special citation from the
liquor industry, could pick up an award for the performance of Jim Norton in the
featured actor category. But the poll shows that award is slightly more likely
to go to Raúl
Esparza of “The Homecoming.” Many admired Mr. Esparza’s performance, and the
award would be a degree of reparation for last year, when Mr. Esparza lost out
to David
Hyde Pierce for best actor in a musical. Many Tony voters expressed chagrin
and shock at this development, though obviously most hadn’t voted for him.
Tom
Stoppard’s “Rock ’n’ Roll,” a play about the end of the Communist government
in Czechoslovakia, also has a shot in the sound design category. One of those
polled said not to discount the Tony voters who think “Rock ’n’ Roll” equals
music, so therefore: sound. But don’t feel bad if it comes up empty-handed; Mr.
Stoppard’s last venture on Broadway, “The Coast of Utopia,” set a record for
Tony wins for a play. As Marx might say, you gotta spread the wealth.
Musical Revival
This category has been fun to watch, as it has set up an old-fashioned
two-way battle all the way down the ballot. While “Sunday in the Park With
George” drew raves and “Grease” drew lots of money, this is a showdown between
“Gypsy” and Lincoln
Center Theater’s production of “Rodgers & Hammerstein’s South Pacific.”
The two shows are competing in seven categories.
The general voting strategy, several Tony political experts say, may be this:
“Gypsy” gets the performance awards (lead actress, featured actress and possibly
featured actor) while “South Pacific” gets best director for Bartlett
Sher’s work, many of the design awards and the top prize. That strategy is
likely to play out, though there is surprisingly robust support for “Gypsy” to
win best over all. Still, “South Pacific,” and Mr. Sher, look poised to pull it
off.
Play, Revival
It is anyone’s game in this category. Well, not anyone’s: not, at least, the
Roundabout’s production of “Les Liaisons Dangereuses.” But the other three —
“The Homecoming,” “Boeing-Boeing” and “Macbeth” — are all in play.
The revival of Harold
Pinter’s extremely dark comedy “The Homecoming” is winning narrowly in the
poll, a surprise given the fact that it closed in April. “Boeing-Boeing,” a ’60s
sex farce, and “Macbeth,” which is not a ’60s sex farce, are neck and neck and
not far behind. It’s scary out here on this limb, but what the heck: given that
it’s still running and has touring potential, let’s give “Boeing-Boeing” the
edge.
Actor, Musical
There’s a little bit of everything in this category: Tom Wopat as the solid
all-American holding the family together in “A Catered Affair”; Daniel Evans as
a seriously intense George in “Sunday in the Park”; Stew as, well, Stew and all
the adjectives that come with that in “Passing Strange”; Paulo Szot as the
old-fashioned leading man’s man in “South Pacific”; and Mr. Miranda as the
scrappy young dreamer in “Heights.”
They all have their fans, and Mr. Szot in particular has a strong
contingency. But everyone just likes the daylights out of Mr. Miranda, who after
all wrote the music he is singing. He’s young, talented and gracious, and he
loves Broadway. And while he’ll most likely be rewarded with a Tony for best
score, no one seems to mind seeing him at the podium twice. He’ll probably even
rap or something.
Actress, Musical
Oh, it will be a battle royal between Patti
LuPone (“Gypsy”) and Kelli
O’Hara (“South Pacific”)! Cars will be overturned! Buildings will be
toppled! It will be like “Godzilla vs. Mothra,” only less congenial!
That was the thinking, at least, when the nominations came out. But something
has changed in the intervening weeks. Apparently everyone got together and
decided that it is Patti’s turn. While Ms. O’Hara has picked up a few votes
(it’s simply not the year for Jenna Russell, Faith
Prince or Kerry Butler), Ms. LuPone has a decisive lead in the poll.
Actress, Play
Does the nomination of two actresses from “August” — Deanna Dunagan as the
mother and Amy Morton as the eldest daughter — undermine the chances of both?
That could open the way for S. Epatha Merkerson (“Come Back, Little Sheba”), Eve
Best (“The Homecoming”) or Kate
Fleetwood (“Macbeth”).
Apparently not. As one voter put it, “Broadway tends to go for Mama.” (On a
related note, see Actress, Musical.) Ms. Dunagan looks poised to pick this one
up.
Actor, Play
Once again, a virtual three-way tie.
For whatever reason, Rufus
Sewell (“Rock ’n’ Roll”) and Ben Daniels (“Les Liaisons Dangereuses”),
despite raves, don’t seem to be drawing many votes. But the other three — Mark
Rylance (“Boeing-Boeing”), Patrick
Stewart (“Macbeth”) and Laurence
Fishburne (“Thurgood”) — are in a tight race, with Mr. Rylance holding a
one-vote lead.
Here’s the math behind that one-vote lead:
Mr. Stewart, with a big name and serious résumé, is the favorite. But Mr.
Fishburne is the sole American in the category and gets to wear the underdog
mantle, as the buzz on “Thurgood” has simply not been as loud as it has been on
“Macbeth” or “Boeing-Boeing.”
One would imagine that either of these two could defeat Mr. Rylance, who, in
his performance as a bashful yet libidinous Midwestern tourist, is not exactly
competing as a heavyweight. Key word, though, being “either.” With both Mr.
Fishburne and Mr. Stewart battling it out to be rewarded for the Serious,
Thought-Provoking Performance, Mr. Rylance is left as the last man standing.
That, at least, is one theory.
I love the performances.
