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Life & Events > Economists
 

Economists

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If you needed any further evidence that the economy is improving, check out this photo.

I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t understand economics. You might as well sign me up for Serbo-Croatian. During this past election, everyone seemed to agree that the Number One issue was THE ECONOMY, but what is “the economy”? Is it measured by how many adults are unemployed? By how much money we have to spend? By how much debt a family is buried under? By what the Fed has done of late to tighten or loosen the money supply? And if all of these things are relevant factors, how much relative weight do we give to each?

The economists seem to have as many views as lawyers have legal theories. It’s not like the long, gone old days, when political leaders relied on oracles to tell them what to do. Nowadays, it’s the economists who tell the politicians what direction to take. Unfortunately, Paul Ryan’s favorite economists are singing a different economic tune than the economists employed by Barack Obama. Laurence J. Peter was right when he said that “an economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today.” As far as I can determine, even the most noted economists speak in tongues. They surely are aware that it is in their best interest to keep everyone guessing about what they themselves are guessing since, inevitably, your guess is as good as theirs. “An economist,” said Alfred Knopf, “is a man who states the obvious in terms of the incomprehensible.”

But leave it to George Bernard Shaw to provide the bon mot: “If all economists were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion.”

They can talk about stocks and bonds and commodities all they want. Stocks and bonds are too volatile and unpredictable for me, and all I know about commodities is that they fall into two groups: goods, which are tangible, and services, which are not. An easy way for me to remember this distinction is that, these days, goods are Chinese and services are American; they make Wal-Mart products, we make Wal-Mart employees.

So, what is economics? It would appear we may have to live with this: economics is what economists do. It is, in the final analysis, a glowing, foul-smelling example of the age old fallacy argumentum ad ignorantiam, where the economist (or a politician such as Paul Ryan), taking advantage of a lack of knowledge among his listeners, impresses his point upon them by confusing them with all sorts of statistics which they are not in a position to analyze or check. Since winter is upon us, a more common term occurs to me: snow job.

posted on Nov 29, 2012 8:40 AM ()

Comments:

Good post. In my next life, I'll be an economist. Never get it right, never get blamed.
comment by tealstar on Dec 17, 2012 6:38 AM ()
I plead ignorance ("ad ignorantium"!) to economics. My stock broker has seen many a "deer in the headlights" look from me! Say what?
comment by solitaire on Nov 30, 2012 5:51 AM ()
Well, at least you have the nerve to venture out. I have enough trouble with the prices in the food market, I'm too chicken to even think about the stock market.
reply by steve on Nov 30, 2012 7:14 AM ()
Well, you've burst my bubble! For some reason, I've been reading a few blogs about economics, or at least written by economists, and finally starting to 'get' Keynes. Apparently I've been wasting my time. As for the economy improving, not in my neighborhood.
comment by catdancer on Nov 29, 2012 7:40 PM ()
I suspect Obama has a lifesize cardboard cutout of Keynes in his den...
reply by steve on Nov 30, 2012 7:12 AM ()
I view psychologists much the same way you view economists. I'm sure at one point in your legal career you ran into a case where one psychologist testified A (e.g. the defendant was competent to stand trial) and opposing counsel produced a psychologist who testified the negation of A.
comment by miker on Nov 29, 2012 2:22 PM ()
Very true! There is probably LESS certainty possible with the shrinks than with the economists. The latter at least have stats to review for whatever they're worth; the former must read minds. I've dealt with dueling shrinks a number of times. They are forensic whores.
reply by steve on Nov 29, 2012 4:32 PM ()
I looked up the definition of ivory tower, and there was an economist sitting in it.
comment by troutbend on Nov 29, 2012 2:12 PM ()
I'm sure he had a self-satisfied look on his face.
reply by steve on Nov 29, 2012 4:33 PM ()
Economists are like statisticians who all know well, "Figures don't lie but liars do figure."
comment by dragonflyby on Nov 29, 2012 1:57 PM ()
Exactly, but allow me to illustrate with these statistics.... (LOL)
comment by jondude on Nov 29, 2012 11:23 AM ()
I think it was Disraeli who said: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, & statistics."
reply by steve on Nov 29, 2012 1:01 PM ()

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