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News & Issues > Latest Tragedy May Bankrupt Japan
 

Latest Tragedy May Bankrupt Japan

Japan was already at the top of developed countries in terms of debt to Gross Domestic Products (GDP). Their current GDP is 200 percent--in other words the country is spending twice as much as it is producing in salable goods--and that was expected to rise to 250 percent by 2015, even before last Friday's tragedy.

According to the website, Seeking Alpha:

Even though Japan is paying less than 1.5% on its bonds, their 200% debt to GDP level is so elevated that interest payments amount to 27% of tax revenues. If you include the roll of maturing debt needed to service it, the share rises to 57%.
Think of that, 57%. Over half of every single yen received in taxes and revenue is used solely to service the existing debt load. Just as a matter of perspective, if rates were to move only to the level of the US, existing debt servicing would equal all tax revenues leaving absolutely nothing for any public service. No schools, no public transport, no social security, no defence spending, nothing at all, a libertarian dream come true. https://seekingalpha.com/article/257182-the-current-japanese-debt-situation-and-what-we-can-learn-from-it
Lawrence G. McDonald,  president of McDonald Advisory Group and a partner with DC Tripwire. and Chriss Street,  report that Japan has maintained current-account surplus and has been sending more than 3% of its GDP abroad, providing more than $175 billion of funds this year for other countries to borrow.
This paradox of a stunningly indebted nation financing the world is explained by a combination of high corporate saving and low levels of residential and non-residential fixed investment due to poor investment opportunities in Japan.
That money is gone after this crisis. Millions of Japanese savers are about to start spending their savings on essentials, since they have lost their jobs and businesses due to the damage.
Tokyo Electric Power Company will suffer losses of over $100 billion from its Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant meltdown and most of Japan’s northern corporate facilities that hug the eastern coastline have been destroyed or incapacitated.
Japan averages one earthquake every four minutes, but Friday’s quake and tsunami were both the largest in the history of the country. Earthquake insurance in Japan is very expensive and only 10% of homeowners buy coverage. Therefore, the Japanese government will be on the hook for several hundred billion in infrastructure and reconstruction costs. 
They conclude by stating that  many naive analysts are commenting about how this natural disaster will be good for the Japanese economy  because of the substantial rebuilding program.
That might have been true if Japan was not already on the verge of a man-made debt disaster prior to this natural disaster. Standard & Poor’s credit rating service had just downgraded Japan’s sovereign debt to AA- in mid-January.
The huge increase in the costs for welfare and unemployment payments, the economic disruption, the scale of the devastation, the lack of insurance and the minimum five years to rebuild the country may take Japan’s credit rating down to “junk bond” levels.
The earthquake and tsunami that have devastated Japan came quickly and violently. But the debt crisis has been building for 20 years and may be much more devastating to the future of Japan. https://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/japan-earthquake-earthquake-in-japan-japan/3/15/2011/id/33360
 


posted on Mar 16, 2011 8:31 AM ()

Comments:

Very concerning. I read somewhere — can't recall the source now, but it was a legitimate one — that the global currency economies may help support Japan to avoid a mass collapse. It seems every time I read an update, the situation is getting worse.
comment by marta on Mar 26, 2011 7:24 PM ()
I can only think about the loss of life and the human suffering at the
moment. The world economy will suffer I am sure but I can't deal with
it right now.
comment by elderjane on Mar 17, 2011 6:56 AM ()
It is difficult to focus on the huge financial burden this will place on Japan when the dead and missing will undoubtedly top 10,000 people.
reply by redimpala on Mar 17, 2011 8:21 PM ()
Thanks for the information. I didn't realize how bad the financial crisis is (and will be) in Japan.
comment by solitaire on Mar 17, 2011 5:32 AM ()
A lot of people don't know that Japan has huge debt. The one thing that is in their favor is that most of their debt is to themselves and not to other countries. They are paying very low interest on the money they have borrowed, so they in turn loan their borrowed money to the United States and others at higher interest rates. Sort of a borrowing from Peter to pay Paul scenario.
reply by redimpala on Mar 17, 2011 8:19 PM ()
Is this from a version of our Fox News, fed by folks like our tea or republican parties? It sort of has that ring about it. Time will tell.
comment by troutbend on Mar 16, 2011 9:23 AM ()
Oops! I meant to say that the United States' debt is currently about 68% of our GDP while Japan, a country about the size of California, has nearly as much debt as we do but does not produce anywhere nearly the salable goods of the US by virtue of our being so much larger. That is why their GDP is at 200% while ours is at 68%. Contrary to what the Republicans would have the public believe, our national debt is relatively benign compared to the national debt of many countries.
reply by redimpala on Mar 16, 2011 5:20 PM ()
No, this is for real. Japan already had huge debt and high inflation. The only thing keeping them afloat is that a large portion of their debt is domestic in the form of bonds purchased by the Japanese people and the fact that interest rates are low on their debt. Their economy has been stagnant for quite some time now. Should interest rates begin to rise, Japan would be in even more trouble. They will need to borrow the money to rebuild their country, which is going to drive their debt even higher. To put this into perspective, the United States GDP is currently about 68 per cent of our GDP. I checked several websites before I published this, and they all showed Japan heavily in debt.
reply by redimpala on Mar 16, 2011 5:01 PM ()
Think that I heard that the banks is safe and more money go into it?
comment by fredo on Mar 16, 2011 9:21 AM ()
Japan will survive for the time being; but they will have to borrow heavily to rebuild their country and they already have nearly as much debt as the United States in a country about the size of California.
reply by redimpala on Mar 16, 2011 5:03 PM ()
The domino effect---that's just adding fuel to the fire--world wide.
comment by greatmartin on Mar 16, 2011 9:03 AM ()
Yes, Japan's crisis will affect the money markets around the world. It already has started.
reply by redimpala on Mar 16, 2011 5:04 PM ()

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