And what about that BCS mess? Here's the general concensus on how that will shake out!! All on the side of the Sooners, I might add!When unbeaten Penn State lost at Iowa on Saturday, that result effectively removed the Big Ten from the national-championship equation. You could almost hear the sighs of relief from BCS officials. SEC vs. Big 12—complete with de facto national semifinals. Everything is neat and tidy now, correct? No BCS problems here, right?
Um, wrong.
What if Oklahoma defeats Texas Tech on Nov. 22? What then?
Maybe it won’t be a classic BCS train pile-up, but mark my words, we’re headed for more controversy.
When the BCS has “worked,’’ it has generally been in seasons that end with only two unbeaten teams in the major conferences. Is that a system “working’’ — or is it simply dumb luck?
When the biggest BCS messes have occurred, there have been multiple unbeaten teams or multiple one-loss teams. And they have been sorted out by a BCS system that is arbitrary at best.
Back to Oklahoma-Texas Tech. If the Sooners prevail, it likely would put Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Texas at one loss in the Big 12. Three-way tie. So who wins the Big 12 South and plays for the league championship?
According to Big 12 rules, it’s the highest ranked team in that week’s BCS standings. Logic says that would be Oklahoma, getting a nice bump after knocking off an unbeaten Red Raider team.
You can already hear the burnt-orange screams coming from Longhorn Country.
Wait a minute! We beat Oklahoma head-to-head. Our only loss was on the road at Texas Tech, in the final seconds. Now Oklahoma plays for the Big 12 title — and we don’t?
That’s right.
And here’s some more. If Texas finishes 11-1, it’s a good bet to claim a BCS at-large bid, probably to the Fiesta Bowl. The Longhorns could be chosen over Texas Tech, likely another 11-1 team (that beat Texas, remember).
But that’s the fallacy of the BCS. Many times, it doesn’t matter who you defeated. It’s not even about whether you lost. Rather, it’s about WHEN you lost.
Truth is, there’s no fair way to separate these one-loss teams.
Oklahoma could be boosted because it lost to Texas in early October.
Texas Tech could be penalized — greatly — if it loses in late November, leaving a bad taste.
In the SEC, it’s a bit more clear-cut. Unbeaten Alabama faces one-loss Florida in the league’s championship game. Winner goes to the Big Game. Loser goes to the Sugar Bowl. Done. Right?
Well, maybe. What if Alabama somehow loses against Auburn in a lead-up game? (Not out of the realm of possibility in that rivalry). What if Florida falls at Florida State? (Ditto). The Crimson Tide and Gators would still meet for the SEC title, but what happens to the national-title implications?
Then we set the stage for all-out chaos. USC will be back in the hunt. How close can Utah and Boise State get to the top?
I’m reminded of that fateful afternoon in 1998 – the first BCS season —when Miami outscored unbeaten UCLA and Texas A&M stunned unbeaten Kansas State. Bobby Bowden, coach of the one-loss Florida State Seminoles, suddenly found himself playing for a national title, even though his team was idle and he had been sitting on his couch.
Timing.
It’s all about timing.
Penn State’s defeat was supposed to make things easier. Yeah, right. Even in a season when the BCS seas have seemingly parted, we still see more big waves ahead. By Joey Johnston NBCSports.com contributor updated 6:40 p.m. CT, Tues., Nov. 11, 2008 style="border:0px;" alt="hit counter">