Jon Adams

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A Minority Of One

Life & Events > What Caused the Crash ...
 

What Caused the Crash ...

That's not a question.

The root of this economic crisis, or crash, is the real estate bubble that began in the early 2000's. The other markets - stocks, bonds, paper - all followed. The former Federal Reserve Chairman called it "irrational exhuberance," and he was more than correct.

Real estate prices zoomed way out of line. People bought and sold houses and condos in quick succession - called "flipping" - and made fortunes in quick order. The average price of homes outstripped peoples' ability to afford them. Stock prices compared to estimated future earnings went way out of whack.

The plain fact is that all investments should never far outpace the inflation rate. During the period of these overboard increases, inflation remained about 2 percent per year. Real estate prices were going up that much a week in some places.

When the real estate market ran out of breath, it wasn't long before the foreclosures began. Then the securities that had been based on those mortgages plunged in value. That resulted in the banking/credit crisis.

The kind of economic disaster we have experienced feeds upon itself. It only gets worse.

Margin calls and desperate short-covering are what has been driving down the stocks. That continues because people are getting frightened and are pulling their money out of mutual funds and stocks. So the funds keep having to sell off securities in order to meet the cash requirements to cover the withdrawals.

It all began with the real estate spikes that went above the inflation rate. It won't bottom until the real estate market bottoms and the average prices get back to what people can afford to buy.

posted on Oct 22, 2008 3:23 PM ()

Comments:

I see you bank got gobbled up today....
comment by marta on Oct 24, 2008 3:30 PM ()
Greenspan could have stopped that by raising interest rates to slow down the housing buying frenzy, but he didn't. We reap what we sow.
comment by redimpala on Oct 23, 2008 4:35 PM ()
well, someone was asleep at the switch, that's fer sher. this would've never happened during a Bugg Administration.

reguards
yer my "cabinet" is disagreeing pal
bugg
comment by honeybugg on Oct 23, 2008 4:15 AM ()
1999...McCain's former economic advisor...you know the one that called user whiners...slipped in that deregulation into that bill right before Christmas...and it's history...
comment by strider333 on Oct 22, 2008 8:32 PM ()
The year 2000, WRONG!!! The beginning of the housing/bad loan debacle started in the 1970's under Carter, escalated for the worse/worst under Clinton, and then the local neighborhood S&L's could no longer carry the bad loans that they were required by the government to initiate, Freddie and Fannie were there to buy then up by the $billions, and here we are today.
comment by oldfatguy on Oct 22, 2008 8:07 PM ()
Did you notice our problems started about the time the Dems got control of Congres?
comment by grumpy on Oct 22, 2008 5:50 PM ()

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