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This Has Been the Coldest Winter.
This Has Been the Coldest Winter.
For most households, this has been the coldest winter in memory - not outside, but inside, in our homes, in our bones. High heating prices have turned down thermostats. The first day of spring is long gone, but home heating oil prices are rising, not falling. Heating oil is selling for nearly $4 per gallon, $1.50 more than a year ago. Regular gasoline prices are well above $3 per gallon, and analysts say motorists will see $4-per-gallon gas by summer's end. The prices of electricity, natural gas, diesel fuel and even firewood have also gone up. Bank accounts are shriveled.
High energy costs are almost certainly permanent. Experts see no little hope that the price of crude oil will ever drop much below $100 per barrel or stay low if it does, and the price of other fuels is tied to oil.
It's time to think in a coordinated, interdisciplinary way about what that means for New Hampshire. But no government agency, blue-ribbon panel or think tank is doing that.
It's time to begin planning and making the changes that will keep the state populated, prosperous and environmentally sound. New England's population is growing only half as fast as the nation as a whole and some areas, like northern New Hampshire, are losing population. How high will energy prices have to go before people decide they're tired of being cold and broke and move?
Much of the growth in New Hampshire has occurred in bedroom communities like Boscawen and Weare. How will low- and middle-income residents afford to commute many miles to jobs that pay modest wages? The state's low-income residents are least able to move. How much heating assistance will they need to keep from choosing between staying warm and eating?
What will spending so much money on energy mean for state and local governments, school districts and households? Less disposable income means less business for retail stores and restaurants, and higher energy costs make it harder for New Hampshire businesses to compete with rivals in warmer climes. How many jobs will higher energy prices cost?
The more energy prices rise, the more conservation measures like insulating homes and replacing windows make sense and the quicker the payback for switching to alternative sources of energy that couldn't compete economically in the past. But may people will be unable to afford or unwilling to make the investment without incentives. Yet unlike many other states, New Hampshire has no incentive program because it has no money. What impact will that have?
The public's driving habits barely changed when gasoline prices hit $2 and dropped only slightly when they hit $3 per gallon. Will $4 per-gallon gas be the trigger that parks cars and creates real pressure to invest in public transportation? And if gasoline usage does drop significantly, will the state have enough money to repair and maintain its crumbling roads and bridges? The window to increase the gas tax that was open when prices flitted up and down between $2 and $3 per gallon has closed.
New Hampshire will change as a result of permanently high energy prices. Some organization with no ax to grind - the New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies and the Carsey Institute at UNH come to mind - should be getting players together to anticipate those changes and suggest the steps that should be taken for New Hampshire to prosper in the new era of increasingly more expensive energy.
posted on Apr 10, 2008 11:29 AM ()
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