Too Many Custodial Managers at Exxon
Too few Entrepreneurs
Do they want nationalization?
The Case Against Exxon Mobil
Martin T. Sosnoff, Forbes [excerpt]
It seems to me that Exxon's management failed to anticipate even $100 oil.
My guess is they were working with internal projections between $60 and $80. I
see here a custodial management that runs its multi-hemisphere operations
efficiently but shows no vision in leveraging its balance sheet aggressively by
increasing buybacks, making strategic acquisitions, finding new oil reserves,
increasing production. Sequentially, earning power is peaking.
The second quarterly report uncovered this giant's vulnerability. An
exogenous event, escalating oil futures, saved the quarter. If I had my way,
management's bonuses and stock options would be tied to finding new oil
reserves, not actual earnings per share. If oil continues its current retreat,
Exxon's earnings will drop meaningfully next year.
If the stock market is going to catch a second wind around the 1,250 level,
the top 25 market leaders need to flex their muscles more than custodial
managers. The silver foxes leave with nine-figure compensation packages while
shareholders suffer in limbo, so I'm opening my window and shouting out
"enough already."