OSCARS 2008
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Survey: Best Picture?
Survey: Best Actor?
Survey: Best Actress?

BEST PICTURE NOMINEE CLIPSVideo: 'Atonement'
Video: 'Juno'
Video: 'Michael Clayton'
Video: 'No Country For Old Men'
Video: 'There Will Be Blood'

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Features: Tim Lammers Interviews

Oscar Predictions: Same 'Old' Story
Don't Look For Big Surprises At Academy Awards
Tim Lammers, Web Staff Editor

POSTED: 4:56 pm EST February 20, 2008
UPDATED: 9:05 am EST February 22, 2008

For all intents and purposes, the biggest mystery of the 80th annual Academy Awards has already been solved: the Hollywood writers' strike has been settled, answering the question of whether or not there would be a traditional, glitzy and glamorous ceremony.

Other than that, there should be nothing that will shock us about festivities, as the winners in the major categories appear to be as predictable as ever.

There's no single way to predict who will win or lose. In addition to awards season trends (specifically, minding who and what the guild awards honor), I find the process of elimination to be the easiest way to whittle down to who has a shot or not.



The biggest factor to consider is Oscar's obvious unwillingness to reward any previous acting winner too much, too soon.

The time span between that first and second trophy usually -- apart from Tom Hanks' back-to-back wins -- usually seems like eons, and the time between a second and third win is almost non-existent (yes, amazingly, Meryl Streep only has two Oscars in her 14 nominations). Because of this mindset, let's immediately count out any potential victories for Cate Blanchett, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Tommy Lee Jones and George Clooney.

Now Julie Christie on the other hand -- well, it's been 43 years since she won. So maybe she'll get a pass.

Here are my predictions for Sunday.

Best Supporting Actor Nominees:

Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Analysis: From the minute Bardem appears on-screen in "No Country For Old Men," you become scared of him. He's an omni-present force in the film, which otherwise suffers from a pretentious ending. Still, it's not enough to take away from this killer of a performance from Bardem.

The shame is, the other performers are as equally brilliant. Hoffman, whose a scream in "Charlie Wilson's War," has the least chance of an upset with a fresh Oscar on his mantle from "Capote" a couple of years back -- only because the Academy rarely awards an actor too much too fast. On the flip side, Holbrook stands the greatest chance to pull an upset because of his body of work. Remember the shoo-in Eddie Murphy being bested by Alan Arkin last year?

Who Will Win: Bardem. I'm still shaking in my boots.

Who Should Win: Bardem. I think I need to change my shorts, too.

Best Supporting Actress Nominees:

Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Analysis: Ryan appeared to be the runaway winner early in the awards season race with performance as the negligent mother of a missing child in "Gone Baby Gone." But as we've seen so many times before, there's a distinct difference between critic and industry awards, and right now, the odds appear in favor of Ruby Dee for "American Gangster," who recently took the supporting actress trophy from the Screen Actors Guild.

But like Holbrook, an honor for Dee at this point would be more sentimental than based on the actual performance. Blanchett, in the first of two nominations, also has a recent Oscar so you can count her out. Swinton is great and deserves the award, but if there's any upset here, it's going to be from the 13-year-old Ronan, who stole the show with her icy performance in "Atonement."

Who Will Win: Ryan. This journeywoman actress has paid her dues, plus it's recognition for an acclaimed film that was overlooked in the other major categories. Still, she didn't give the strongest performance in the group.

Who Should Win: Ronan. Why "Atonement" is even a Best Picture nominee is a head -scratcher. But Ronan's performance is the main reason the film starts so strong, but as her character grows older (and switches performers), it's all downhill from there. Still, she has a greater presence in the movie than Ryan does.

Best Actor Nominees:

George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Johnny Depp, "Sweeney Todd the Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
Tommy Lee Jones, "In the Valley of Elah"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"


"Analysis: While Clooney's performance in "Michael Clayton" is far better than his Oscar-winning turn in "Syriana," he doesn't stand a chance against Day-Lewis in "There Will Be Blood." Day-Lewis' ruthless oilman is his best performance to date; and we're talking about a guy who won an Oscar for "My Left Foot" and should have won another for "Gangs of New York." Oh, that second, elusive Oscar.

Jones' nomination is a surprise, and he'll have to settle for the "I'm just happy to be nominated" mode of thought (plus, he's a previous Oscar winner). Mortensen gives his best performance to date as a Russian mobster, and might actually have had a shot in a Day-Lewis-less year. And as great as Depp is in "Sweeney Todd," and how much he deserves to win, Day-Lewis is, well, a cut above the actor's murderous barber character.

Who Will Win: Day-Lewis. He's frightening, like Bardem in "No Country," but in a psychological sort of way.

Who Should Win: Day-Lewis. Nobody can disappear into a character like Day-Lewis. Nobody.

Best Actress Nominees:

Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Julie Christie, "Away From Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Laura Linney, "The Savages"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Analysis: Like Bardem, Christie has dominated the honors this awards season. Her portrayal of a woman withering away from Alzheimer's disease is heartbreaking -- and if she wins, it won't be entirely because of a sentimental reasons for the legendary actress. It's a truly riveting performance.

Previous-winner Blanchett can look to be shut out for the second time in one night, French-actress Cotillard faces the obstacle of starring in a foreign language film, which rarely produces winners (the excitable Roberto Begnini aside). Linney's surprise nomination is her third overall, and she will win someday, but this year she'll just have to say, "I'm happy just to be nominated." Ellen Page is really the only actress who stands a chance to upset Christie, but since she's only turning 21 on Feb. 21, she clearly has an Oscar in her future (add another five years to her chances because she really does look like she's 16, like her big-screen counterpart).

Who Will Win: Christie – but she's not a lock like Day-Lewis. Lauren Bacall was a shoo-in for a Best Supporting Actress Oscar in 1997 and was clearly devastated when Juliet Binoche's name was called instead. Again, Page could pull the upset, which is not entirely a bad thing. She carries the film and is totally believable as the wise-beyond-her-years 16-year-old pregnant teen. But will Oscar be courageous enough to deliver?

Who Should Win: Christie. If she were to lose, she can't feel entirely too bad. She already has an Oscar on her mantle from 1965. And above all the awards nonsense -- to keep things in perspective -- the recognition of the performance raises more awareness of Alzheimer's.

Best Picture Nominees:

"Atonement"
"Juno"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

Analysis: For some strange reason critics and industry types alike are falling all over themselves for "No Country," which, apart from the baffling ending, is a straight-forward crime thriller and far less remarkable than co-directors Joel and Ethan Coen's masterpiece, "Fargo."

"Juno" is the blockbuster of the group, but you can forget about the Academy rewarding a comedy. "Michael Clayton" may be the best film of the pack, but Day-Lewis' performance (and a thankless, but brilliant supporting turn by Paul Dano) in "There Will Be Blood" may be the only film that has a chance of an upset. Without a Best Director nomination, the over-rated "Atonement" should be just happy to be nominated.

What Will Win: "No Country For Old Men." Perhaps the Academy is making up for missing the boat on "Fargo"? What other explanation could there be? I guess I'll have to see the film again to pick up on what I may have missed.

What Should Win: "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street." There, I said it. The film isn't even among the Best Picture nominees, but is far more daring than any of the nominees. After getting robbed of a Best Animated Feature for "Corpse Bride," it's becoming increasingly clear that the Academy doesn't want to dare to be different by rewarding director Tim Burton in any sort of way.

With the musical opus, Burton shows that he's far from being a one-note director. Yes, his films are quirky, but they span so many genres. And with "Sweeney Todd," he runs the gamut with an amazing blend of comedy, drama, suspense, horror -- and a brilliant music of Stephen Sondheim, to boot. It's dramatically different from most of Hollywood's offerings, but still accessible. And that's an amazing achievement.

The argument could be made that the Coens are daring filmmakers. True in the past, but "No Country" is their most conventional film to date.

If you have to force me to pick one of the five nominated otherwise, it would have to be "Michael Clayton." It's a white-knuckle thriller that's masterfully constructed and executed by writer-director Tony Gilroy.
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