Josh Brolin stars as George Bush in W.





The Academy Awards race at this stage is all about who's in it, who's making it, who's marketing it, and does it have a history of acclaim? USA TODAY examines some films that are building anticipation among movie lovers.
•W. (Oct. 17), Oliver Stone's comedic-drama starring Josh Brolin, about President Bush's rise from youth to the White House. Stone has a history of Oscar attention when he deals with recent history (JFK, Born on the Fourth of July). "It could be the Doctor Strangelove that we haven't seen in a long time," says Dave Poland of MovieCityNews.com. Frost/Nixon (below) and this film could butt against each other, he warns, unless the academy has enough appetite for two political sagas. "Both could be great and get in," he says. "But at least one of the two will."


STORY: Oscar talk begins

•TheChangeling (Oct. 24) and Gran Torino (December). Clint Eastwood directs both dramas, the former starring Angelina Jolie and the latter himself. "Clint Eastwood never lets us down," says Sasha Stone, who runs the Oscar blog AwardsDaily.com. She adds that anticipation is particularly high for Gran Torino, about a classic-car owner who confronts his own prejudices when an immigrant family moves next door. "That's being kept under wraps, and when he does that, that's when you've got to pay attention," Stone says, noting the come-from-nowhere momentum of the filmmaker's Letters From Iwo Jima two years ago.

•Australia (Nov. 28), the epic starring Nicole Kidman and Hugh Jackman and directed by Moulin Rouge's Baz Luhrmann. It may all come down to Luhrmann. "The thing about him is, he is absolute pass or absolute fail. It's not going to be just an OK movie. It'll either be really bad or really, really good," Stone says.

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•Milk (Nov. 26), starring Sean Penn as the San Francisco city supervisor Harvey Milk, the trailblazing, openly gay politician who was gunned down by Dan White (Josh Brolin), a rival city supervisor. "Milk is one of the locked-in most likely films" for best picture, says Poland. "It looks like a political movie with a strong human story. That combination is unbeatable."

•Frost/Nixon (Dec. 5), based on the Broadway play, with Ron Howard behind it. Tony winner Frank Langella reprises his role as the disgraced former president, confronted in a famous, combative television interview with his own record. "People have seen the play and kind of know what to expect, and with Ron Howard directing, I'd put it in the top three," Stone says.

•Defiance (Dec. 12), the Daniel Craig World War II saga about a group of refugee Jews who form a guerrilla force to fight the Nazis. Ed Zwick is the director, known for making acclaimed movies that fall shy of Oscar victory (The Last Samurai, Blood Diamond). "It seems like a good, strong bet," Poland says. "Holocaust films have a leg up at the Oscar race. They strike a nerve there since a large percentage of the academy is Jewish."

•The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Dec. 25), a drama based on an unusual fantasy story by F. Scott Fitzgerald. It stars Brad Pitt as a man who ages backward. It's directed by Seven's David Fincher. "It's a romantic, weird tale," Poland says. "But it has to play more as metaphor and not as a gimmick."

•Revolutionary Road (Dec. 26), directed by Sam Mendes (American Beauty), a reunion for Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet — their first pairing since Titanic. Set in the 1950s, it's the story of a young family's slow collapse as various dreams and ambitions fall apart. "It has all the presumed prestige, but is it a story we have seen before?" Poland says. "What makes it different will be the deciding factor in whether it's an Oscar movie."