'Great Depression' closer than U.S. admits, report finds(The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) Sep. 27--Today's debt crisis is much worse than thought, as more than 1,600 banks and thrifts -- with assets totaling $3.2 trillion -- could fail, a research firm said Friday. If approved, the $700 billion bailout proposed by the Bush administration would be too little, too late to end the nation's debt crisis -- but too much, too soon for the bond market to handle, according to researchers Martin D. Weiss and Michael Larson. "The $700 billion bailout is like a dike that's already overflowing, but people still are trying to plug leaks," said Weiss, founder and CEO of Weiss Research Inc. of Jupiter, Fla. Larson follows the mortgage, interest and real estate markets for Weiss. Weiss and Larson co-authored a paper that they submitted Friday to the Senate Banking Committee and to the House Financial Services Committee. The paper explains in depth their analysis of what Weiss called during a conference call "a debt crisis so severe, there's risk of a Great Depression." The Weiss-Larson report greatly expands what has been released publicly regarding the debt crisis. For example, Weiss found the number of banks in need of assistance is 1,637 -- nearly 20 percent of the 8,451 such institutions nationwide. Those banks and thrifts have assets totaling $3.2 trillion -- 41 times the $78 billion in assets held by the 117 financial institutions recognized as needing assistance by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Weiss Research bases its analysis on financial reports filed by all banks and thrifts with federal regulators every three months. "There is a dual problem with the crisis," said Weiss, whose data frequently are used in Tribune-Review articles concerning the financial health of the region's banking industry. "All of the talk seems to be about securitization of mortgages, but there's been a decline -- a rotting -- of the underlying assets (mortgages)." Weiss' data show that among financial institutions with $5 billion or more in total assets, 61 banks and 25 thrifts are "overexposed" -- holding 1 1/2 times more in non-performing mortgages than their shareholders' equity, which acts as a cushion to absorb losses. Weiss and Larson urge President Bush and Congress to look past the mortgage mess and consider the country's total debt outstanding. Mortgages, for example, represent just 42 percent of the country's $35.2 trillion in private-sector debt. "This is a debt-addicted society we live in," Weiss said. "We need to focus less on bailing out and more on strengthening our life vests, our safety nets, like the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the Securities Investor Protection Corp., and state-run insurance guarantee associations." Weiss said the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., or FDIC, is funded at $45 billion, which is $32 billion less than the assets of banks on its list of troubled institutions. The funding figure is a minuscule 1.9 percent of the assets of banks and thrifts Weiss Research calls at risk. If the $700 billion bailout is approved, where is the money coming from? Weiss said there are three ways to raise the funds -- assessing taxpayers, which he said is unlikely; printing more money, which means hyperinflation; or by borrowing. Adding the $700 billion to funds already announced to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and insurance giant AIG, and the bailout total jumps to nearly $1 trillion. "This bill is so extreme it could double or triple the federal deficit in a very short period of time. It would drive up the cost of borrowing, not only for the U.S. Treasury, but for other bonds -- and for millions of Americans seeking a mortgage or other credit," Weiss said. The dollar likewise could be devalued, risking a dollar collapse and the flight of capital out of the country. Weiss and Larson offer three recommendations to ease the crisis: --Congress should limit and reduce funds allocated to any bailout to avoid a sharp interest-rate rise or a collapse of the dollar and focus on shoring up government safety nets. --If Congress creates a new agency to acquire bad private-sector debt, the agency should pay the market value for that debt. Such a move would mean buying the debt at a sharp discount so that it can be quickly converted to cash. --Congress must admit to the American people that there are significant risks in the financial system that government can't fix, including the possibility of surging defaults on debt not covered by a bailout or a chain reaction of corporate failures. |