A day after U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visited New Delhi in an attempt to restrain India from taking aggressive action against Pakistan, Indian media began leaking reports Dec. 4 alleging that Pakistan's spy agency had trained the militants involved in the Mumbai attacks.

According to India's NDTV, anonymous sources said India has proof that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency was behind the deadly attack and knows the names of the attackers' trainers and the locations in Pakistan where the attackers were trained. The report added that sources say it is hard to imagine the Pakistani army did not know of the Mumbai attack plan. Earlier, The Times of India reported Dec. 4 that the United States has set the stage for punitive, internationally backed strikes by India against terrorist camps in Pakistan if Islamabad does not dismantle them.

The reports on ISI links to the Mumbai attacks are spreading rapidly in the Indian media, and were very likely leaked systematically by India's military and intelligence apparatus to help build the case for Indian military action against Pakistan. Stratfor has received indications in recent days that India has withheld evidence of a Pakistani link, waiting instead for an opportune time to release the information.

Rice came to New Delhi on Dec. 3 primarily with a message of restraint. While the United States is keen on pressuring Islamabad to rein in its spy agency, it also cannot afford to see U.S. military operations in the Pakistani/Afghan theater compromised by a crisis on the Indo-Pakistani border. In a number of statements Dec. 3, particularly from Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, the Pakistani government indicated quite clearly that while the United States was pressuring Islamabad to deliver on key Indian demands, Washington has given Pakistan assurances that the United States will restrain India. As a result, the Pakistani president took the opportunity to deny any involvement in the Mumbai attacks and maneuver around Indian demands to hand over high-value suspects.

But the Indians are unlikely to be restrained. Pressure is building inside India to move against Pakistan, with the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party intensifying its campaign to bring down the ruling Congress party coalition over its alleged weak response to the attacks.

Through a variety of media, Pakistan is indicating that Islamabad lacks control over the elements that carried out the Mumbai attacks, and that India therefore lacks cause to act against Pakistan. But if the military-intelligence establishment in Pakistan is coming apart, the Indians have no choice but to take coercive steps to pressure Islamabad to overhaul its security apparatus to prevent a repeat of the Mumbai attacks -- regardless of what the United States says or thinks.

The problem with this strategy is that New Delhi, Islamabad and Washington are all aware of the limits of the Pakistani state in reining in the rogues. Moreover, sources in the Indian military have not revealed a high level of confidence that India could successfully target camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Such action would require foreign collaboration, most likely with an ally like Israel behind the scenes. New Delhi lacks any good option for dealing with this situation, and Indian restraint is nowhere near assured at this point.