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Sports & Recreation > Tennis > Slammin Down Under Pt. 1
 

Slammin Down Under Pt. 1

The 2006 Australian Open kicks off Monday morning in Melbourne. The first of the year’s Grand Slam events has produced some of the best tennis in recent memory. Today we take a look at this year’s men’s draw.

In last year’s semifinal, Russia’s Marat Safin beat the number one ranked Roger Federer in a 5 set grudge match that held off 11 months of tennis as the men’s match of the year. Safin went on to win the title.

Safin has appeared in three of the last four Aussie finals, but won’t make the trip Down Under this year, as a lingering knee injury has grounded his game. He’s joined on the sidelines by the number two ranked Rafael Nadal and four time champion Andre Agassi.

This year’s draw on the men’s side may again end up with the top four seeds making the semis. While there are always potential traps in any draw, the injury ridden talent pool on the men’s side has cleared the road for the favorites.

Number 4 - David Nalbandian: It’s not Day-vid, it’s Dah-veed. More and more people are learning how to pronounce this Argentine’s name correctly after beating Federer in the year end championships in Shanghai. In fact, he’s the only seeded player with a winning record against Roger. (Deceiving stat alert: although Nalbandian leads their head-to-head 6 matches to 4, he has dropped 4 of the last 5 to Federer.)

His road to the semis could be problematic. He has an unfavorable record against the 11th seed David Ferrer, and could face #12 Tommy Robredo or the red hot James Blake in the third round. He’s never faced Blake before, but surely took notice after Blake’s amazing run last summer which propelled him back into the top 20. If James picks up where he left off in 2005, then this could very well be his first slam semi.

Also in his section of the draw are #8 Gaston Gaudio and #32 Carlos Moya. While Gaudio and Moya are seeded players here, they’re both clay courters, and will probably be sent home during week one.

Nalbandian is always considered a threat, but his ability to go deep in tournaments is questionable. He’s only won four titles in his five year career, and his best slam result was blowing a 2 sets to none lead to Andy Roddick in the semis of the U.S. Open.

Number 3 - Lleyton Hewitt: Prepare for crowd noise. “Aussie! Aussie! Aussie! Oi! Oi! Oi! Aussie! Oi! Aussie! Oi! Aussie! Oi! Aussie! Aussie! Aussie! Oi! Oi! Oi!” Two things Australian fans never tire of: drinking Victoria Bitters by the score, and chanting that.

Australia’s favorite son of footballer Glynn Hewitt, Lleyton is set for his 10th run at his nation’s top title. Despite victories at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, Hewitt has passed the 4th round at Melbourne only once. He made it all the way to the finals in 2005, and with nemesis Roger Federer out of the draw he looked poised to finally bring the title back home. He dominated Marat Safin in the first set, winning 6-1. But Safin shook off nerves and a rowdy crowd to win the next three sets and the championship.

Hewitt is always dangerous, but nowhere is he more feared than in his home country. His fist pumping, ground pounding antics don’t always play well at the other 3 slams, but the folks at Rod Laver Arena thrive on it. They can make his early round matches seem like Wrestlemania.

Potential bumps in the road are few and far between in Hewitt’s end of the draw. There are only 14 players in history who have a winning record against Hewitt, and he won’t see any of them until Federer in the semifinals. Srichaphan, Kiefer or Ferrero could be challenging competitors, but he should have an easy time of it until at least the quarters, where he could face Coria, Grosjean or Gonzalez, all of whom are known more for their clay court prowess.

Number 2 - Andy Roddick: 150 mph serves, blistering forehands and the will to chase down any ball usually gives this young American a free pass into the second week of most Grand Slams.

However, when Nadal pulled out due to injury and gave Roddick the number two seed, he may not have done him a favor. Granted, he won’t have to play Federer until the finals, but that rides on the assumption that Roddick can make it that far. He doesn’t play anyone of note in the first two rounds, and luckily neither of them are named Gilles Muller.

He’s lined up for probable third round match against his countryman Taylor Dent. As with most of his draw, he’s got the better record against Dent. However, he employs a relentless serve and volley attack that can give Roddick trouble. It’s also worth saying that Taylor is the son of Aussie Davis Cupper Phil Dent, so Roddick will probably not have the crowd on his side.

In the fourth round, his likely opponent will be another American, Robby Ginepri. Roddick won his first 5 matches against Ginepri, but it’s a different Robby these days. Roddick lost their last meeting in Indianapolis and Ginepri went on to win the title. Ginepri also strung together six brilliant matches at the U.S. Open last year, finally falling to Andre Agassi in a thrilling five set semifinal. Robby has gone from a top 100 player to a top 20 player in the last 12 months, and is now a legitimate threat in big tournaments.

In the quarterfinal round Roddick can expect to see #10 Thomas Johansson or #7 Ivan Ljubicic. Johansson won this tournament in 2002, but he plays best on grass and has never beaten Roddick. Ljubicic and Roddick certainly aren’t friends. They’ve had on court altercations on more than one occasion. As of late, Ljubicic seems to have Roddick’s number, winning the last two matches including a huge upset in last year’s Davis Cup. If this plays out, it will be a monumental grudge match.

Number 1 - Roger Federer: It’s doubtful that Federer will face any peril at any point in this tournament. He can practically moonwalk his way through the first four rounds. The only players of note in his section are Tommy Haas and 5th seed Nikolay Davydenko. They have a combined 2-10 record against Federer and Haas scored the last win in 2002.

The sleeper in Federer’s draw might be #12 seed Dominik Hrbaty. Federer has lost both times he faced Hrbaty, once in 2000 and again in 2004. But for that to happen, Hrbaty would have to take out Davydenko in the 4th round, something that’s he’s never done on a hardcourt.

Federer doesn’t have much to worry about from the 2, 3 and 4 seeds either. He’s lost one match out of 11 against Roddick. He’s won the last nine against Hewitt, and aside from the Masters Cup (where Federer hadn’t held a racket in two months), he’d won the last four vs. Nalbandian.

It’s Roger’s world, and it’s Roger’s tournament to lose.

Tomorrow, we loosen up the strings and break some serves... it’s the ladies’ side.

posted on Sept 29, 2007 12:03 PM ()

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